# Ceasar's Mind

## Jellybean Jars Done Right

It’s fairly close to Easter, so I figure a few of these will be popping up in the future, and I thought I’d just write a post about how to game the system properly and guess the correct number with a good deal of precision.

So back in senior year of high school, we had a week long contest known as Spirit Week where the school was divided into two teams to compete in a series of events for no reason other than bragging rights. As you can imagine, most of the stuff was rather silly and I didn’t bother. However, one event was more suited to my tastes: The moderators filled up two decent sized jars with Jolly Ranchers and gave each of us one guess. The person who submitted the closest number to the real count would win some points for their team as well as the two jars of candy.

My friend Vinh and I decided to take up the challenge for some kicks. In order to do this, I took a bunch of 2×4 Lego bricks from my house, a small jar, and then bought some Jolly Ranchers from a nearby convenience store. (I thought the Lego bricks were a good approximation, but it turned out later I didn’t need them.) I then proceeded to fill up the jar with all the Jolly Ranchers I had, measured the height, and calculated the jar volume to Jolly Rancher ratio (measuring Jolly Rancher volume is impractical because of the weirdness of the shape and the chaotic way that they stack, so this is the only reasonable way). It came out to be that 66% of the jar was empty space! (And for those interested, a jar of 2×4 lego bricks is 50% empty space. In other words, if you don’t know what to do with all of your bricks and hate how much space they take up, you might compress them by pressing them together rather than just throwing them all into a box for a 50% reduction!)

Now typically they don’t let you measure the jar, and in that case your guess is as good as mine. (I would suppose taking a picture of the jar next to a meterstick would be useful in the case.) But in this case they let people measure. Unfortunately, the one jar was kind of round, so a simple height x width x length was insufficient, but fortunately, my friend Vinh knew how to do curve fitting on our TI-83s, so I simply recorded a few widths at various heights and we took a few integrals to get the volume. Multiplying the volume by the space to Jolly Rancher ratio gave us an approximation, and being a team event, Vinh and I printed out a bunch of numbers for our friends to guess that gave us plenty of room to be off by.

Subsequently, one of my friends, Max, won,with a guess off by three of our original approximation. Max kept one of the jars, I got one (offered to split it with Vinh but he didn’t care. Me either really, it’s now preserved as a trophy in my basement.), and the team scored a bunch of points. (We still lost though unfortunately.)

And that’s how you do it the nerd way.

Written by Ceasar Bautista

2011/04/06 at 16:14

Posted in Uncategorized

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